Demand forecasting for new media services with consideration of competitive relationships using the competitive Bass model and the theory of the niche

Abstract

New broadcasting services such as Internet protocol TV (IPTV) have been totally revolutionizing the broadcasting industry; thus, the prediction of the degree of diffusion of new media services is a major topic of interest for both governments and providers. This paper proposes a new approach towards demand forecasting for new services with no data and with consideration of competitive relationships with existing services. The underlying model of the proposed approach is the competitive Bass model, which is the most widely used competitive diffusion model. The competition coefficients of the model are estimated by introducing the theory of the niche. The theory of the niche, which originates from ecology, has often been used as a framework for examining competition patterns in the media industry. This study develops a new integrated measure, competitive superiority, by modifying and combining the two conventional measures of the theory of the niche, viz., niche overlap and niche superiority. The competition coefficients are then obtained by adjusting the values of competitive superiority to be incorporated in the model based on the relationship between competition and imitation effects. A case of Korean digital broadcasting services is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.