Demand forecast and allocation system of coalbed methane of different grades in mining area

Abstract

ABSTRACT Coal mine drainage gas, also known as Coal-Bed Methane (CBM), is a type of clean energy. Different concentrations or grades of gas are extracted and used in the mining area, and the supply and demand of different concentrations of gas is complicated. To achieve optimal resource allocation and minimal environmental pollution, the utilization of different concentrations of CBM and the time characteristics of utilization are explored, and a method for forecasting the demand for different concentrations of gas is proposed based on the time series forecasting algorithm. With the model fitting parameters combined, the prediction models are evaluated by comparison of the predicted results with the actual data. The predicted results show that the simple periodic model can reasonably predict the demand for high-grade CBM in the mining area, while the Additive Holt-Winters (AHW) model can forecast the demand for low-grade CBM properly. And the fitting parameters of the prediction models indicate that the information is sufficiently extracted and the prediction results are satisfactory. Finally, the resource allocation system for different grades of CBM is proposed through the minimum element method and the analytic hierarchy process. The proposed allocation system can provide a reference for developing a better CBM allocation system in the mining area to reduce the waste of CBM.