Demand for Greek imports using multivariate cointegration techniques

Abstract

Starting from a theoretical model with importable, traded and nontraded goods, we identify a long run relationship among Greek imports, domestic activity and relative prices. The model supports weak exogeneity of relative prices which means that Greek importers take the price of imports as given. The greater than one income elasticity, which persists even when cyclical demand effects are netted out, means that Greece faces an external constraint on growth as verified by the negative effect of the disequilibrium error in the short run output equation. The findings of this paper suggest that the price of domestic tradeables and nontradeables are significant determinants of the long run and short run import demand, while instability in domestic inflation is found to have a strong short run depressing effect on domestic activity.