DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTION OF CEREALS: CONSEQUENCE TO FOOD SECURITY IN INDIA AND NIGERIA

Abstract

The paper presents demand and supply projection of major cereals for the year 2030, 2040 and 2050 for both India and Nigeria and the implication on food security challenge. The demand projections were computed using simple growth rate model under the assumptions of 6, 7 and 8 per cent GDP growth rate representing low-, moderate- and high-income growth. Results indicated that in both India and Nigeria increase in income do not cause any significant increase in the demand for cereals. It is concluded that India would be a self-sufficient in rice, wheat and maize with deficit in sorghum for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. On the other hand, Nigeria would be plunging into a huge deficit in rice, wheat and a marginal surplus in maize and sorghum for the year 2030 with deteriorating deficits in the years 2040 and 2050 in rice, wheat, maize and sorghum respectively. In the study period, there would be surplus of cereals in the India with exception of sorghum; these prospects need to be strengthened and expand to sorghum through vigorous expansionary production programs as well ensure more availability, accessibility and affordability of cereal among poor families of India. For Nigeria to meet the future food requirements, the country shall have to either increase agricultural production, or depend on imports. As such, the paper suggests that the policy focus needs to be lunched, towards massive production, productivity enhancement in agriculture, through public investment in irrigation, credit facilities, research and extension.