Delays in the New York City metroplex

Abstract

Aviation delays impose significant external costs on society. This paper represents one of the first attempts to use a count regression model to study delays at the three New York city area airports – Liberty (Newark), John F. Kennedy and LaGuardia. Explanatory variables are drawn from an extensive literature survey and reflect a range of environmental and operational causal factors. Adverse weather has the largest impact on expected delay, followed by congestion during the metroplex peak. Airport operations peaks matter if they occur at times when the metroplex is busy. Other significant causal factors include surface congestion and arrivals from congested domestic hubs. The impact of the latter appears to be driven by the proportion of domestic traffic. The complex causal factors of delays suggest that regardless of the empirical approach, airport specificities are important in reducing delays.