Delayed reaction towards emerging COVID-19 variants of concern: Does history repeat itself?

Abstract

After more than a year with COVID-19, it becomes increasingly clear that certain variants of concern have the potential to be game changers, determining the future of our aviation. These variants pose significant health threats and possibly undermine ongoing vaccination efforts. Recent research showed that flight bans on the initial SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in January 2020 were implemented too late and therefore, turned out to be largely ineffective, enabling a swift turn into a fully-blown pandemic. In this study, we investigate the following question: How effective were existing flight bans against the newly emerged variants of concern? In other words: Do airlines and countries happen to repeat the same mistake again? We analyze the spread of the three most prevalent variants of concern right now: B.1.1.7 (known as the UK variant), B.1.351 (known as the South African variant), and P.1 (known as the Brazilian variant). We find that many countries, again, implemented flights bans once the mutated virus had enough time to be imported via air transportation. To support our empirical analysis further, we designed and implemented a compartmental network spreading model on top of worldwide flight data for the years 2020 and 2021. We observe that the model predictions are rather accurate and confirm our findings. Overall, we hope that our study encourages air transportation stakeholders and policy makers to avoid repeating earlier mistakes in the future, with the ultimate goal to overcome COVID-19 entirely.