Degradation model: a quantitative EIA instrument, acting as a decision support system (DSS) for environmental management.

Abstract

Environmental assessment of alternative development plans, programs, and policies may bring conflict among decision-makers, particularly when some quantitative measures for decision-making are needed and where cumulative impacts are neglected. Environmental impact assessment (EIA) and environmental economics theories, despite their usefulness, are not capable of addressing those issues and problems alone. In recent years, the decision support system (DSS) has provided some solutions, but mathematical analysis of the system to show the internal structure of the problem is not always possible. To addres the above shortcomings and ongoing problems of decision-making in Iran, a degradation model (DM) was introduced as an instrument of EIA, to act as a DSS for managers. The model is a compromise between knowledge-based decision support systems, detailed models, digested information models, and the basic theorem of environmental economics. In the present study (1996-2000), the model was applied in three provinces of Iran, representing three of four biogeographical regions of Iran. The study area was divided into a set of grids (100 km(2)). The degradation coefficient ( H) was computed for all grids (1333), representing the degree of degradation in the grid. It is obvious that the higher the coefficient the more area is degraded and less prone to further development, and vice versa. In order to provide decision-makers with a set of quantitative measures to observe impacted areas (critical and noncritical) for resource allocation and further development, the degradation coefficients of all grids were classified into categories and criteria, using a fuzzy set theoretic approach. Accordingly, only 24% of study areas are prone to further development. The degradation model as a knowledge-based decision support system has its strengths and weaknesses, but it has solved managers' ongoing problems in Iran and it could be used elsewhere.