Abstract
Amidst the COVID-19 global pandemic of 2020, identifying and applying lessons learned from previous influenza and coronavirus pandemics may offer important insight into its interruption. Herein, we conducted a review of the literature of the influenza pandemics of the 20th century; and of the coronavirus and influenza pandemics of the 21st century. Influenza and coronavirus pandemics are zoonoses that spread rapidly in consistent seasonal patterns during an initial wave of infection and subsequent waves of spread. For all of their differences in the state of available medical technologies, global population changes, and social and geopolitical factors surrounding each pandemic, there are remarkable similarities among them. While vaccination of high-risk groups is advocated as an instrumental mode of interrupting pandemics, non-pharmacological interventions including avoidance of mass gatherings, school closings, case isolation, contact tracing, and the implementation of infection prevention strategies in healthcare settings represent the cornerstone to halting transmission. In conjunction with lessons learned from previous pandemics, the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic constitutes the basis for delineating best practices to confront future pandemics.
Highlights
Throughout the history of mankind, pandemics have consistently produced large-scale demographic, economic, and political disruptions [1,2]
We compare salient epidemiological aspects of the major influenza and coronavirus pandemics of the 20th and 21st century to identify potential patterns and lessons learned that may assist us in mitigating the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic
This is true for both seasonal pandemic influenza strains with decreased infectivity during periods with increased temperature and absolute humidity [21]. This can help to account for why most pandemic strains have shown a refractory period of decreased cases during the summer months. While these trends have been seen with beta-coronaviruses, a recent study on the likelihood of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV-2 entering into the seasonal flu community in the post-pandemic period has estimated that the influence of summer climate aspects may only decrease the likelihood of spread of SARS-CoV-2 by less than 20% [13,22,23,24,25]
Summary
Throughout the history of mankind, pandemics have consistently produced large-scale demographic, economic, and political disruptions [1,2] Due to their unpredictable course, fear and anxiety amplify the overall impact of pandemics. Pandemics are becoming much more common compared to previous centuries, as shown by the proximity of the 2003 SARS pandemic, the influenza H1N1pdm2009, Chikungunya in 2014, Ebola from 2014–2015, and Zika in 2015. In this narrative review, we compare salient epidemiological aspects of the major influenza and coronavirus pandemics of the 20th and 21st century to identify potential patterns and lessons learned that may assist us in mitigating the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic
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