Abstract
Deforestation in Indonesia has been taking place for a long time, but the observed acceleration in recent years may, to a large extent, be explained by rapid population growth in the heavily forested islands outside Java, such as Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Irian Jaya. Although not all forms of deforestation are negative, serious social, economic and environmental costs are associated with destructive deforestation. Agricultural expansion, commercial and illicit logging, migration and resettlement, infrastructure and industrial development, and forest fires contribute both to controlled and uncontrolled deforestation. These immediate causes are driven by population growth, rural poverty, institutional factors and the stage of development of the economy. Using the Indonesian Deforestation Model to predict the outlook of the Indonesian forests, it seems likely that most of the Outer Islands, particularly Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Irian Jaya and Moluccas, will continue to loose their natural forest cover until it falls to around 25–30% of land area.KeywordsDeforestationforest policyforest sector modelingdeforestation modelingIndonesia
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