Abstract
Land use change and deforestation can influence local temperature and climate. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to assess the impact of savannization of the Amazon Basin on the wet-bulb globe temperature heat stress index under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that heat stress exposure due to deforestation was comparable to the effect of climate change under RCP8.5. Our findings suggest that heat stress index could exceed the human adaptation limit by 2100 under the combined effects of Amazon savannization and climate change. Moreover, we find that risk of heat stress exposure was highest in Northern Brazil and among the most socially vulnerable. We suggest that by 2100, savannization of the Amazon will lead to more than 11 million people will be exposed heat stress that poses an extreme risk to human health under a high emission scenario.
Highlights
Land use change and deforestation can influence local temperature and climate
Such climatic conditions were enhanced when the savannization experiments were computed in tandem with the atmospheric radiative forcing of the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 (Supplementary Fig. 1)
HS represents the historical greenhouse gas scenario with the savannah land use pattern and 85F indicates the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenario run with the forested land use pattern
Summary
Land use change and deforestation can influence local temperature and climate. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to assess the impact of savannization of the Amazon Basin on the wet-bulb globe temperature heat stress index under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Nobre et al.[13] predicted a nearly 60% rainfall reduction and a 2 °C increase in the nearsurface air temperature over the Amazon based on a scenario of Amazonian deforestation incorporating ocean–atmosphere coupling Such profound climatic changes over the Amazon along with large-scale projected deforestation scenarios will aggravate the effects of heat exposure on human adaptation, work activities, leisure, and sports practice[14], especially for vulnerable social groups. We carried out numerical climate modeling experiments using the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM2.5)[15,16,17] to assess the effects of two major climate stressors, i.e., Amazon savannization and global climate change, on the risk of exposure to heat stress conditions with respect to the potential impact on human health. Excessive heat-related morbidity and mortality are linked to the body’s ability to maintain a stable internal temperature[18]
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