Deflection flows ahead of ICMEs as an indicator of curvature and geoeffectiveness

Abstract

We examine the upstream meridional deflection flows of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in an effort to investigate their cross‐sectional shape and the magnetic field orientation in their sheath regions. Eight out of 11 magnetic clouds (MCs) near solar minimum identified for the curvature study are concave outward as indicated by the elevation angle of the MC normal with respect to the solar equatorial plane; an inverse correlation is observed between the meridional deflection flow and the spacecraft latitude for these concave‐outward MCs, which suggests that the upstream plasma is deflected toward the equatorial plane. MHD simulations, however, show that the meridional deflection flow moves poleward for a concave‐outward CME. The poleward flow deflection is observed only ahead of convex‐outward MCs. Possibilities leading to this discrepancy are discussed. The deflection flow speed in sheath regions of ICMEs increases with the ICME speed relative to the ambient solar wind, which together with the coupling between the meridional magnetic field and deflection flow yields a positive linear correlation between the sheath meridional field and the ICME relative speed. This empirical relationship could predict the sheath meridional field based on the observed CME speed, which may be useful for space weather forecasting as ICME sheaths are often geoeffective. Implications of the deflection flows and ICME curvature are also discussed in terms of magnetic reconnection and particle acceleration in ICME sheaths.