Deflection-based parametric survival analysis side impact chest injury risk curves AIS 2015

Abstract

Objectives The objective of this study was to reanalyze lateral postmortem human surrogate (PMHS) sled test chestband data to construct updated lateral thoracic injury risk curves (IRCs) using survival analysis. Methods Chestband and injury data were gathered from 16 previously conducted PMHS sled tests. Briefly, 2 chestbands were wrapped around the thorax’s circumference at the levels of ribs 4 and 8. Tests were conducted at 6.7 m/s on a rigid and padded load wall fixed to the top of a rebound sled. The injuries were reclassified using the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2015 coding scheme. Chestband signals were combined with pretest specimen measurements to calculate the chest deflection contour time history. Deflections were determined using updated processing techniques calculating the change in length of every point on the contour from the impacted side using the thorax’s midpoint as the origin. Four candidate metrics were selected: the deflection from rib 4, the deflection from rib 8, the greater of the deflections from ribs 4 and 8, and the average of the deflections from ribs 4 and 8. AIS 3+ IRCs were developed considering outcomes of AIS ≥3 injuries. All injury data were uncensored, and noninjury data were right-censored. Three specimen mass-based IRCs were determined using the IRC with the lowest Brier score metric (BSM): The first corresponded to the 5th percentile female mass (49 kg), the second to the 50th percentile male mass (77 kg), and the third to the average mass of the PMHS ensemble (65 kg). Results Sixteen PMHS were used in the current study. Six specimens were right-censored, and 10 were uncensored. The average metric had the lowest BSM, and mass was a significant covariate with 50% risk of AIS3+ injury at 72mm of chest deflection. The 50% risk deflection magnitudes for the 5th percentile female (49 kg), 50th percentile male (77 kg), and PMHS ensemble (PMHS-E) (65 kg) were 59, 81, and 71 mm. IRCs for the 4 metrics and the 3 occupant masses are given. Conclusions IRCs were developed using survival analysis, and the average of the peak deflections was found to best represent the thoracic chest deflection response. Mass-based side impact IRCs were calculated for occupants representing the WorldSID 5th percentile female and 50th percentile male anthropomorphic test device.