Definitions of recovery and outcomes of major depression: results from a 10‐year follow‐up

Abstract

Furukawa TA, Fujita A, Harai H, Yoshimura R, Kitamura T, Takahashi K. Definitions of recovery and outcomes of major depression: results from a 10-year follow-up.ObjectiveConsensus operational definitions for symptomatic remission and recovery of a major depressive episode have been proposed but only irregularly followed.MethodWe examined the predictive validity of different definitions of recovery in a multi-center 10-year follow-up study of an inception cohort of untreated unipolar major depressive episodes (n = 95). Time to recovery and time to recurrence after recovery were estimated by Kaplan–Meier survival analyses for alternative definitions requiring 2, 4, 6 or 12 months of remission to declare recovery.ResultsThe median time to recovery was 3.0, 4.0, 4.0 and 12.0 months respectively. The index episode lasted longer than 24 months in 9.4%, 9.2%, 12.6% and 24.5%. The median time to subthreshold recurrence was 16.0, 32.0, 42.0 and 74.0 months.ConclusionEither 4- or 6-month duration of remission defined a change point before which the episode was continuous and after which the recurrence was reasonably unlikely.Significant outcomes Requiring two months of remission is probably too short to declare recovery because a subthreshold recurrence occurs in more than half of the cohort within a year and a half.If we require 4 or 6 months before we declare recovery, the median time to recovery is 4 months and that to subthreshold recurrence is nearly 3 years.Requiring 12 months of remission before declaring recovery would make the episode discontinuous yet long and inflate the rate of chronicity.Limitations The sample size was relatively small and the confidence intervals were accordingly wide.This was a naturalistic study and the treatments were not controlled.Validity of alternative definitions of remission requires a separate study.