Definition sources of error prediction for unauthorized access to information networks of the state

Abstract

This article examines and identifies the sources of error prediction of unauthorized access to the information networks of the state. It is proved that one of the sources of errors in terms of monitored parameters is the error’s value change interval of the observed realization of a random process along with the changes in the state within network time. This source of error can be determined if a solution to prediction problem is found in general. Assuming that the length of the implementation is quite accurate and its extrapolation is carried out without errors, the method of solving the equation is considered as the only source of error. Sources of errors arising in the first stage (the extrapolation step), in turn, can be divided into two groups. The first group is connected with the functional value, namely the imperfection of the object model, the incompleteness or inaccuracy of the quantitative characteristics describing the objective relations within the researched process. The second group of errors arises at the extrapolation step, and occurs even when the functional extrapolation is quite accurate as well as the output section of realization is observed without errors. Thus, a stochastic nature of the problem is the cause of these errors. The analysis identifies the key potential problems that should be solved in order to ensure the high reliability of the forecast that in turn, can be used to enhance prediction of unauthorized access to the information networks of the state.