Definition of Extreme El Niño and Its Impact on Projected Increase in Extreme El Niño Frequency

Abstract

AbstractDuring extreme El Niño events, the Intertropical Convergence Zone moves to the normally cold and dry east equatorial Pacific, resulting in a nonlinear rainfall increase with sea surface temperature in the region. An arbitrary threshold value of boreal winter total rainfall (e.g., 5 mm d−1) in the east equatorial Pacific was used by previous studies to capture this feature. Under greenhouse warming, the frequency of extreme El Niño events is projected to increase, so is the mean east equatorial Pacific rainfall. Is the projected frequency increase a consequence of the mean rainfall increase? We show that the projection is not significantly influenced by the increased mean rainfall. Instead, the increased frequency accounts for approximately 50% of the mean rainfall increase. Using upward atmospheric vertical velocity for defining extreme El Niño reaffirms the conclusion that the increased frequency results from increased probability of atmospheric deep convection, as the eastern equatorial Pacific warms faster than the surrounding regions.