Abstract
The article deals with the questions of the definition of the conditionally permanent part of current liabilities of a bank. The purpose of this article is to develop a scientific and methodological approach to determine the conditionally permanent part of the current liabilities of a bank under the conditions of the complexity of data acquisition and processing of the data on factors that influence on demand deposits. The main hypothesis is the assumption of the heterogeneity of the variance of the daily cumulative sum of demand deposits. The analysis of scientific and methodological approaches that allow determining a stable part of current liabilities proves the need for further improvement of scientific instruments. In particular, a coefficient analysis that is proposed by some of the scholars, mainly, considers the average values of turnover on accounts, which in turn, can vary considerably throughout the calendar year. The use of the probability distributions to determine the expected value of the constant sum of deposits is possible only in the case of «ideal» financial conditions, when the impact of factors on the aggregate sum of deposits is not taken into account. The developed statistical models leave out the possible heterogeneity of the dispersion of this balance. In the article, it is proposed to apply econometric methods, namely, the methods of time series analysis to test the hypothesis of the variance heterogeneity of the cumulative sum of demand deposits, using daily data. In particular, the formalization and evaluation of EGARCH-model parameters are conducted. The EGARCH-model allows to take into account the non-linear, asymmetric effects of fluctuations in the financial series. The determination of the conditionally permanent part of demand deposits is proposed on the basis of the revealed regularities. The results of the research prove the hypothesis of the non-stationary character of the variance in daily balance of demand deposits. It may result from the economic shocks influence. The proposed scientific and methodological approach may be applied in the bank liabilities management both at the micro level and at the regional level of banking network.
Highlights
One of the most important functions of the banking sector is the formation of credit and investment resources
Taking into account the features of the considered scientific and methodical approaches determining the total value of the conditionally permanent part of demand deposits we propose to continue developing the scientific tools for solving this problem
We would like to stress the objective necessity of a preliminary check of this hypothesis. If it is confirmed, forecasting of the conditionally permanent part of the demand deposits should be made taking into account the revealed volatility of their variance
Summary
One of the most important functions of the banking sector is the formation of credit and investment resources. Processes of banking resources transformation ensure qualitative changes in parameters of funds accumulated by the Bank and bringing them into line with the requirements of the Bank's credit, investment activities and maintenance of the desired liquidity [1, p. Of investment and credit multiplication and transmission of money flows through the market economic system, longterm resources return into the banking system in a transformed form, largely in the form of "short" and small demand deposits. The stability of transformations of the funds accumulated by the banking sector into credit and investment resources, while banks mediate, depends on the ratio and nature of the influence of internal and external factors. Skillful, scientific and reasonable management of bank resources must ensure on the one hand ability of banks to fulfill their obligations to their depositors and creditors, and on the other hand to bring the margin sufficient to develop the banking business
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