Defining the relative contribution of health care environmental components to patient outcomes in the model of 30-day readmission after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG)

Abstract

BackgroundPatient outcomes following health care interventions may be dependent on a variety of factors: patient, surgeon, hospital, information technology, and temporal, cultural, and socioeconomic factors, among others. In this study, we characterize the relative contribution of each of these factors using a model of 30-day readmission following coronary artery bypass graft. MethodsThe Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, the American Hospital Association Annual Health Survey Databases, the Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society, and the Distressed Communities Index from 2010 to 2013 were linked for Florida, Iowa, Massachusetts, Maryland, New York, and Washington. Logistic regression, random forest, decision tree, gradient boosting, k-nearest-neighbors classification, and XGBoost tree models were implemented. Modeling results were compared on the basis of predictive accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. Decision tree performed best and was selected for further analysis. A gradient-boosted model was used to quantify factor contribution. ResultsThe model had 45,352 patients, 54,096 admissions, and a 16.2% 30-day readmission rate after coronary artery bypass graft. The top 10 predictors were disposition at discharge, number of chronic conditions, total procedures, median household income, adults without high school diplomas, primary payer method, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality comorbidity: renal failure, patient location (urban-rural), admission type, and age categories. The top 3 socioeconomic predictors were estimated state median household income, adults without high school diplomas, and patient location (urban versus rural designation). The relative contribution of patient/temporal, socioeconomic, hospital information technology, and hospital factors to readmission is 83.45%, 5.71%, 6.34%, and 4.31%, respectively. ConclusionIn this model, the contribution of socioeconomic factors is substantive but lags significantly behind patient/temporal factors. With ever increasing availability of data, identification of contributors to patient outcomes within the overall health care macroenvironment will allow prioritization of interventions.