Defining the Phenomenon of Mental Models for Critical Events

Abstract

People use cognitive representations in order to characterize, understand, reason and predict the surrounding world. A class of these representations are called mental models. Designers of informing systems are interested in how mental models influence decision making, especially during critical events. With this knowledge they could optimize the content and amount of information that is needed for a dependable decision making process. New insights are needed about the operation of mental models in the course of critical events, as well as on how informing influences the real life operationalization of mental models. Most of the definitions available in the literature are overly general, and no definition was found that would support the design of informing systems for critical events. Therefore, the objective of our research was to derive a definition of mental models that play a role in critical events. Actually, we systematically constructed a definition from those attributes of mental model descriptions that were found to be relevant to critical events. First we decomposed 125 published descriptions to a set of attributes, and then assessed each attribute to see if they were associated with critical events, or not. In fact, this analysis involved not only the relevance of the attributes to critical events, but also the frequency of occurrence in the surveyed papers. This exploration provided a large number of attributes for a new mental model definition. Based on the top rated attributes, a definition was synthesized which, theoretically, has a strong relation to critical events. Though further validation will be needed, we argue that the derived mental model definition is strong because it establishes relationships with all generic features of critical events and makes the related information contents explicit. Hence the proposed definition can be considered a starting platform for investigations of the influence of informing on decision making processes in critical events.