Defining a Nomogram for Predicting Early Recurrence in Gastric Cancer Patients After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Radical Gastrectomy

Abstract

PurposeTo define and predict early recurrence (ER) in patients with gastric cancer (GC) who underwent radical gastrectomy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). MethodsThe present study included 573 patients who underwent NAC followed by curative resection for GC between January 2014 and December 2019. The patients were randomly divided into the training (n = 382) and validation (n = 191) cohorts in a 2:1 ratio. The optimal cut-off value of recurrence-free survival for defining ER was determined based on post-recurrence survival (PRS). Risk factors for ER were identified by logistic regression. A nomogram was further constructed and evaluated. ResultsThe optimal cut-off value for defining ER was 12 months. Overall, 136 patients (23.7%) experienced ER and had significantly shorter median PRS (4 vs. 13 months, P < 0.001). In the training cohort, factors independently associated with ER included age (P = 0.026), Lauren classification (P < 0.001), preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (P = 0.029), ypN staging (P < 0.001), major pathological regression (P = 0.004), and postoperative complications (P < 0.001). A nomogram integrating these factors exhibited higher predictive accuracy than the ypTNM stage alone in both the training and validation cohorts. Moreover, the nomogram enabled significant risk stratification in both cohorts; only the high-risk patients could benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (ER rate: 53.9% vs. 85.7%, P = 0.007). ConclusionA nomogram involving preoperative factors can accurately predict the risk of ER and guide individualized treatment strategies for GC patients following NAC, which may assist in clinical decision-making.