Defensible Progress Monitoring Data for Medium- and High-Stakes Decisions

Abstract

Within a response to intervention model, educators increasingly use progress monitoring (PM) to support medium- to high-stakes decisions for individual students. For PM to serve these more demanding decisions requires more careful consideration of measurement error. That error should be calculated within a fixed linear regression model rather than a classical test theory model, which has been more common. Seven practical skills are described for improving the use of PM data for medium- to high-stakes decisions: (a) estimating a static performance level in PM, (b) fitting a level of confidence to an educational decision, (c) expressing an estimated score ( Yhat) with its measurement error, (d) judging reliable improvement from one time to a later time, (e) properly using slope versus trendedness, (f) expressing “rate of improvement” (slope) with error, and (g) controlling autocorrelation. An example data set and PM graphs are used to illustrate each.