Defense Resource Allocation Against Sequential Unintentional and Intentional Impacts

Abstract

This paper studies the defense strategy for a parallel system subject to an unintentional impact and an intentional impact. Existing research assumes that system damage is caused by either natural disasters (unintentional impacts) or strategic attackers (intentional impacts). However, in practice, the defender may encounter diverse scenarios, where these two kinds of impacts can happen in a sequential order. Without knowing the precise occurrence sequence, the defender must allocate its limited resources against two successive impacts. In each contest, the defender can construct redundant elements and protect them from damage, to minimize the expected loss from system destructions. Illustrative examples of the optimal strategy are presented in three cases: first, where the unintentional impact comes first; second, where the intentional impact comes first; and third, where the two impacts come in an uncertain order. Supplemental protection is considered in the model extension, where the defender can allocate additional protection resources to those elements that have survived after the first impact.