Deep learning vs conventional learning algorithms for clinical prediction in Crohn's disease: A proof-of-concept study.

Abstract

BACKGROUNDTraditional methods of developing predictive models in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) rely on using statistical regression approaches to deriving clinical scores such as the Crohn's disease (CD) activity index. However, traditional approaches are unable to take advantage of more complex data structures such as repeated measurements. Deep learning methods have the potential ability to automatically find and learn complex, hidden relationships between predictive markers and outcomes, but their application to clinical prediction in CD and IBD has not been explored previously.AIMTo determine and compare the utility of deep learning with conventional algorithms in predicting response to anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapy in CD.METHODSThis was a retrospective single-center cohort study of all CD patients who commenced anti-TNF therapy (either adalimumab or infliximab) from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2015. Remission was defined as a C-reactive protein (CRP) < 5 mg/L at 12 mo after anti-TNF commencement. Three supervised learning algorithms were compared: (1) A conventional statistical learning algorithm using multivariable logistic regression on baseline data only; (2) A deep learning algorithm using a feed-forward artificial neural network on baseline data only; and (3) A deep learning algorithm using a recurrent neural network on repeated data. Predictive performance was assessed using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) after 10× repeated 5-fold cross-validation.RESULTSA total of 146 patients were included (median age 36 years, 48% male). Concomitant therapy at anti-TNF commencement included thiopurines (68%), methotrexate (18%), corticosteroids (44%) and aminosalicylates (33%). After 12 mo, 64% had CRP < 5 mg/L. The conventional learning algorithm selected the following baseline variables for the predictive model: Complex disease behavior, albumin, monocytes, lymphocytes, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and gamma-glutamyl transferase, and had a cross-validated AUC of 0.659, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.562-0.756. A feed-forward artificial neural network using only baseline data demonstrated an AUC of 0.710 (95%CI: 0.622-0.799; P = 0.25 vs conventional). A recurrent neural network using repeated biomarker measurements demonstrated significantly higher AUC compared to the conventional algorithm (0.754, 95%CI: 0.674-0.834; P = 0.036).CONCLUSIONDeep learning methods are feasible and have the potential for stronger predictive performance compared to conventional model building methods when applied to predicting remission after anti-TNF therapy in CD.