Deep learning prediction of BRAF-RAS gene expression signature identifies noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary-like nuclear features

Abstract

Noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) are follicular-patterned thyroid neoplasms defined by nuclear atypia and indolent behavior. They harbor RAS mutations, rather than BRAFV600E mutations as is observed in papillary thyroid carcinomas with extensive follicular growth. Reliably identifying NIFTPs aids in safe therapy de-escalation, but has proven to be challenging due to interobserver variability and morphologic heterogeneity. The genomic scoring system BRS (BRAF-RAS score) was developed to quantify the extent to which a tumor’s expression profile resembles a BRAFV600E or RAS-mutant neoplasm. We proposed that deep learning prediction of BRS could differentiate NIFTP from other follicular-patterned neoplasms. A deep learning model was trained on slides from a dataset of 115 thyroid neoplasms to predict tumor subtype (NIFTP, PTC-EFG, or classic PTC), and was used to generate predictions for 497 thyroid neoplasms within The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Within follicular-patterned neoplasms, tumors with positive BRS (RAS-like) were 8.5 times as likely to carry an NIFTP prediction than tumors with negative BRS (89.7% vs 10.5%, P < 0.0001). To test the hypothesis that BRS may serve as a surrogate for biological processes that determine tumor subtype, a separate model was trained on TCGA slides to predict BRS as a linear outcome. This model performed well in cross-validation on the training set (R2 = 0.67, dichotomized AUC = 0.94). In our internal cohort, NIFTPs were near universally predicted to have RAS-like BRS; as a sole discriminator of NIFTP status, predicted BRS performed with an AUC of 0.99 globally and 0.97 when restricted to follicular-patterned neoplasms. BRAFV600E-mutant PTC-EFG had BRAFV600E-like predicted BRS (mean −0.49), nonmutant PTC-EFG had more intermediate predicted BRS (mean −0.17), and NIFTP had RAS-like BRS (mean 0.35; P < 0.0001). In summary, histologic features associated with the BRAF-RAS gene expression spectrum are detectable by deep learning and can aid in distinguishing indolent NIFTP from PTCs.