Deep learning of renal scans in children with antenatal hydronephrosis

Abstract

Antenatal hydronephrosis (ANH) is one of the most common anomalies identified on prenatal ultrasound, found in up to 4.5% of all pregnancies. Children with ANH are surveilled with repeated renal ultrasound and when there is high suspicion for a ureteropelvic junction obstruction on renal ultrasound, a mercaptuacetyltriglycerine (MAG3) Lasix renal scan is performed to evaluate for obstruction. However, the challenging interpretation of MAG3 renal scans places patients at risk of misdiagnosis. Our objective was to analyze MAG3 renal scans using machine learning to predict renal complications. We hypothesized that our deep learning model would extract features from MAG3 renal scans that can predict renal complications in children with ANH. We performed a case-control study of MAG3 studies drawn from a population of children with ANH concerning for ureteropelvic junction obstruction evaluated at our institution from January 2009 until June of 2021. The outcome was renal complications that occur ≥6 months after an equivocal MAG-3 renal scan. We created two machine learning models: a deep learning model using the radiotracer concentration versus time data from the kidney of interest and a random forest model created using clinical data. The performance of the models was assessed using measures of diagnostic accuracy. We identified 152 eligible patients with available images of which 62 were cases and 90 were controls. The deep learning model predicted future renal complications with an overall accuracy of 73% (95% confidence inteveral [CI] 68-76%) and an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.7, 0.84). The random forest model had an accuracy of 62% (95% CI 60-66%) and an AUC of 0.67 (95% CI. 0 64, 0.72) DISCUSSION: Our deep learning model predicted patients at high risk of developing renal complications following an equivocal renal scan and discriminate those at low risk with moderately high accuracy (73%). The deep learning model outperformed the clinical model built from clinical features classically used by urologists for surgical decision making. Our models have the potential to influence clinical decision making by providing supplemental analytical data from MAG3 scans that would not otherwise be available to urologists. Future multi-institutional retrospective and prospective trials are needed to validate our model.