Deep Learning for Tropical Cyclone Nowcasting: Experiments with Generative Adversarial and Recurrent Neural Networks

Abstract

<p>Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are deadly but rare events that cause considerable loss of life and property damage every year. Traditional TC forecasting and tracking methods focus on numerical forecasting models, synoptic forecasting and statistical methods. However, in recent years there have been several studies investigating applications of Deep Learning (DL) methods for weather forecasting with encouraging results.</p><p>We aim to test the efficacy of several DL methods for TC nowcasting, particularly focusing on Generative Adversarial Neural Networks (GANs) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). The strengths of these network types align well with the given problem: GANs are particularly apt to learn the form of a dataset, such as the typical shape and intensity of a TC, and RNNs are useful for learning timeseries data, enabling a prediction to be made based on the past several timesteps.</p><p>The goal is to produce a DL based pipeline to predict the future state of a developing cyclone with accuracy that measures up to current methods.  We demonstrate our approach based on learning from high-resolution numerical simulations of TCs from the Indian and Pacific oceans and discuss the challenges and advantages of applying these DL approaches to large high-resolution numerical weather data.</p>