Deep learning coupled model based on TCN-LSTM for particulate matter concentration prediction

Abstract

In this study, we combined the Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) model with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network model and applied it to prediction of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) concentrations. The study area is Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, and the study period is from January 2015 to July 2022. During this period, Xi'an exceeded China's National Ambient Air Quality Grade Ⅰ standard for PM for up to 70% of the days. The prediction results of the TCN-LSTM model were compared with those of deep learning models (Convolutional Neural Network-LSTM, TCN, and LSTM) and machine learning models (Support Vector Regression and Random Forest). The R2 values of the TCN-LSTM model were all >0.88, indicating better performance than that of the other five models, and the errors of the TCN-LSTM model were all lower than those of the other five models. The results showed that high-accuracy PM predictions using deep learning models can improve air quality monitoring by compensating for problems in the environmental monitoring process such as pollutant monitoring errors caused by instrument failures. Additionally, sensitivity analysis helps to identify the key factors influencing the behavior of PM. A sensitivity analysis of PM for different periods of COVID-19 found that PM2.5 is more sensitive to O3, while PM10 is mainly influenced by PM2.5. The sensitivity analysis for the whole period showed that PM was closely related to CO. Removing variables that do not contribute to the model output based on the sensitivity analysis results improves modeling efficiency while reducing operating costs and improving environmental monitoring activities and management strategies.