Deep Learning-based Production Forecasting in Manufacturing: a Packaging Equipment Case Study

Abstract

We propose a Deep Learning (DL)-based approach for production performance forecasting in fresh products packaging. On the one hand, this is a very demanding scenario where high throughput is mandatory; on the other, due to strict hygiene requirements, unexpected downtime caused by packaging machines can lead to huge product waste. Thus, our aim is predicting future values of key performance indexes such as Machine Mechanical Efficiency (MME) and Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE). We address this problem by leveraging DL-based approaches and historical production performance data related to measurements, warnings and alarms. Different architectures and prediction horizons are analyzed and compared to identify the most robust and effective solutions. We provide experimental results on a real industrial case, showing advantages with respect to current policies implemented by the industrial partner both in terms of forecasting accuracy and maintenance costs. The proposed architecture is shown to be effective on a real case study and it enables the development of predictive services in the area of Predictive Maintenance and Quality Monitoring for packaging equipment providers.