Deep learning approach to forecast air pollution based on novel hourly index

Abstract

Air pollution is a pressing concern that the entire world is striving to combat. Among air pollutants, particulate matter poses a significant threat to human health. The Sustainable Development Goals (SGD3, SGD7 and SGD11) include initiatives to address air pollution. Two innovative methods are proposed in this research to predict the PM2.5 concentration in advance. While multivariate time series prediction models typically employ multiple features as inputs, this research reduces the number of inputs, which makes the proposed combination of approaches simple and effective. The approaches involve the development of two new indexing methods, namely, the Hourly Relative Mean Index and the Hourly Weighted Index. This research offers innovative hybrid deep learning models that incorporate the newly developed indices, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models, and robust preprocessing techniques. Multivariate Isolation Forest Relative Index Bidirectional LSTM and Multivariate Isolation Forest Weighted Index LSTM methods are used to forecast PM2.5 concentration for an hourly time frame. Further, Multivariate Isolation Forest Relative Index LSTM and Multivariate Isolation Forest Weighted Index LSTM methods are used to forecast PM2.5 concentration 48 h ahead. The study establishes that the proposed combination of approaches outperform traditional ways to achieve superior performance with reduced complexities requiring fewer inputs for predictions.