Abstract
This paper studies the impact of deep agreements on UK–EU trade relations. Specifically, we apply a standard gravity model to assess the effect that EU membership had on UK trade and then use the estimates from this analysis to evaluate the future of UK–EU trade relations under different scenarios. Differently from previous studies, we use new information on the content of trade agreements to build a measure of “depth” based on the number of provisions they cover and we rely on information on goods, services and value-added trade from the World Input Output Database (WIOD). The key finding is that as the UK benefited from large trade gains from EU membership, its undoing may lead to substantial trade losses.
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