Abstract
This Dedicated HPC Project Investment (DHPI) system is in support of the Fleet Numerical/Air Force Weather Agency Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS). The objective of the JEFS project is to develop an ensemble modeling system for stochastic mesoscale weather forecasts which includes both initial condition uncertainty and model formulation uncertainty. These stochastic weather forecasts provide both probability of occurrence of weather events and an estimate of forecast reliability. The DHPI system is split between the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) in Omaha, NE, and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) in Monterey, CA. Part of the model formulation uncertainty included in the ensemble is due to different forecast models and data assimilation systems in use at FNMOC and AFWA. Given the success indicated by the results from each of the individual AFWA and FNMOC mesoscale ensemble systems, it is expected that even more reliable probability forecasts and more robust estimates of forecast reliability will be possible with a combined ensemble.
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