Decoupling of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in a warmer climate

Abstract

The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation are modes of climate variability affecting temperature and precipitation in the mid-latitudes. Here we use reanalysis data and climate model simulations of historical and warm climates to show that the relationship between the two oscillations changes with climate warming. The two modes are currently highly correlated, as both are strongly influenced by the downward propagation of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies into the troposphere. When considering a very warm climate scenario, the hemispherically defined Arctic Oscillation pattern shifts to reflect variability of the North Pacific storm track, while the regionally defined North Atlantic Oscillation pattern remains stable. The stratosphere remains an important precursor for North Atlantic Oscillation, and surface Eurasian and Aleutian pressure anomalies precede stratospheric anomalies. Idealized general circulation model simulations suggest that these modifications are linked to the stronger warming of the Pacific compared with the slower warming of the Atlantic Ocean. The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are modes of Northern Hemisphere climate variability with high temporal and spatial correlation. With strong warming, climate models suggest their link breaks down due to a divergent response to the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and stratosphere.