Decoupling from China will not go far in medium term

Abstract

Significance The need to counter China is among the few matters of top-tier importance in Washington on which there is broad bipartisan agreement. One element of this is the objective of decoupling from Chinese products and supply chains, a goal driven by both economic and national security concerns. Impacts The United States will focus on decoupling in a few strategic sectors such as telecommunications and semiconductors. Indigenisation in software and semiconductors will be priorities for China. China's long-term efforts in a broader range of cutting-edge industries aim at both economic development and strategic independence. Tokyo and Taipei's 'economic security' efforts face constraints similar to Washington's but more severe. Other advanced countries in Europe and elsewhere make their own calculations; finding common ground against China will be difficult.