Decoupling degrees of China's economic growth from three-perspective carbon emissions

Abstract

Responsible for 28% of global carbon emissions (since 2012), China's actions to carbon emission mitigation are critical to achieving the net-zero ambition globally. Since aggressive actions on emission mitigation always involving the risk of economic losses, it is vital to examining the trade-off between mitigation policies and economic development. Here, we examined the extent to which the economic growth is decoupled from three-perspective emissions, i.e., production-, consumption- and income-based emissions. Results showed that 90%, 73% and 80% of Chinese provinces have achieved decoupling of GDP from production-, consumption- and income-based emissions during 2012–2017. We also investigated and compared dominant drivers (economic structure, emission intensity, per capita GDP, and population size) of emission changes among four types of provinces. Emission intensity was identified as the most important driver in terms of emission mitigation, while per capita GDP and population were the major ones adversely affecting emission mitigation. We put forward different mitigation suggestions for these provinces. Provinces, achieving three-perspective decoupling, should sustain technological improvement of key industrial enterprises. Downstream provinces that are still coupled from consumption-based emissions should adjust their consumption structure and consuming less emission-intensive products from upstream sectors. Upstream provinces, still coupled from income-based emissions, should adjust their allocation behaviors, e.g., distributing their primary or intermediate goods and services to low-carbon producers. Government should also adjust the rates of taxes and subsidies on products, and the rates of loans to the upstream producers. Provinces, still coupled from three-perspective emissions, should invest more in cleaner production technologies and promote applications to emission-intensive industries.