Decomposition of Carbon Emission Influencing Factors and Peak Prediction in Ningxia Region

Abstract

To meet the demand for carbon emission prediction, it is necessary to master the measurement criteria and influencing factors of carbon emission and improve the accuracy of prediction results in the form of a combined application of multiple algorithmic models. This paper proposes a carbon emission impact factor decomposition model based on LMDI and a carbon emission prediction model based on the EEMD-BSO-GPR model. The study of carbon emission forecasting within the study region allows the study of the stage in which carbon emissions are located, the relationship between emissions and influencing factors such as industrial structure, affluence, energy structure, technology level, degree of openness to the outside world, and population size. The combined forecasting model can also meet the demand for carbon emission forecasting in the region with higher forecasting accuracy.