Decomposition of carbon emission driving factors and judgment of peak status in countries along the Belt and Road

Abstract

Most of the countries along the Belt and Road are still developing, with their carbon emissions yet to peak. There is a lack of comprehensive analysis and research to judge these countries' current carbon peak state and quantify key driving factors contributing to their carbon emissions. This study aims to fill this gap.A new method for judging a country's peak carbon status based on a time series of carbon emissions is developed. We divide the status of all countries along the Belt and Road into four categories: reached the peak, peak plateau period 1 (the downward trend is not significant), peak plateau period 2 (obvious recession), and not reached the peak. LMDI factorization is used to decompose the change in carbon emissions of energy consumption into multiple factors: carbon intensity, energy intensity, economic output, and population size, based on Kaya's identity theory. The carbon emission and socioeconomic databases from 2000 to 2019 are utilized for this analysis. The main positive driving factor of the three countries (Hungary, Romania, Czech Republic) that have reached the peak is GDP PPP per population, while other driving factors make negative contributions to carbon emissions. In some years, these countries briefly experienced a negative contribution of GDP PPP per population to carbon emissions. The driving factors of carbon emissions for countries in the peak plateau period are not stable, with contributions of GDP PPP per population, energy intensity, and carbon intensity fluctuating periodically. In countries that have not reached the peak of carbon emissions, population growth and economic growth are significant positive contributors, while the effect of driving factors that negatively contribute to carbon emissions is less obvious.The study's findings provide valuable insights into the carbon emission peak status and driving factors of countries along the Belt and Road, which can be used to guide policymaking and future research in addressing climate change and promoting sustainable development in these regions.