Decomposition-ANN Methods for Long-Term Discharge Prediction Based on Fisher’s Ordered Clustering with MESA

Abstract

Precise and reliable long-term streamflow prediction contributes to water resources planning and management. Artificial neural network (ANN) have shown its remarkable ability in forecasting non-linear hydrological processes without involvement of complex, dynamic, hydrological and hydro-climatologic physical process in the water shed. To improve its non-stationary responses, decomposition methods are adopted as pre-processing methods in this study including Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL). The original time sequence is decomposed to several components, which are then taken as the inputs of the ANN model. EMD and EEMD are data- adaptable methods, and thus the number of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) might differ for different sequences, leading to the discrepancy of the input number for ANN model in training and predicting. Fisher’s ordered clustering is thus used to classify the IMFs into a determined number of classes based on their frequency spectrum resulting from Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA). The proposed methodology is applied on four important hydrological stations on the upper stream of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River in China, respectively, to forecast the streamflow of the next whole year with the historical daily data of the past 6 years. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of the monthly prediction are higher than 0.85 for all of the four cases, and various indicators indicates that the proposed hybrid method of STL-ANN performs better than other compared methods. The highlights of this study lies in that only historical daily streamflow data is used to derive an accurate long-term prediction by data mining based on decomposition technology and mapping relationships between the decomposed components and the original sequence in the future.