Decomposition and forecasting analysis of China's household electricity consumption using three-dimensional decomposition and hybrid trend extrapolation models

Abstract

In the present “new normal” economic mode, the household is a major driver of China's electricity consumption growth. To guide the development of the electric power industry in adapting to this situation, this study used the household electricity consumption and population data of 30 provinces during 2001–2014, a three-dimensional decomposition model, and a hybrid trend extrapolation model to explore the driving factors of China's household electricity consumption growth and forecast its future development trend before 2030. Empirical analysis drew the following conclusions: (1) China's household electricity consumption growth is mainly attributed to the improvement of its living standards and still has great potential. (2) Population increase and provincial population structure adjustment have little impact on household electricity consumption growth. (3) In 2030, China's household electricity consumption per capita will increase to 1.06 thousand kWh per capita. (4) China's household electricity consumption will increase to 1.57 trillion kWh in 2030, which is twice that in 2015. The implementation of the universal two-child population policy will have no significant impact on these forecasting results. (5) Raising household electric price level, setting cool and heat storage price, and developing the micro-grid are the suggested policy directions.