Decomposition analytics of carbon emissions by cement manufacturing - a way forward towards carbon neutrality in a developing country.

Abstract

Carbon emissions have emerged as an alarming and complex issue causing a long-lasting debate over climate change in the construction, building, and industrial sectors. There is tremendous growth in the construction and building industry, especially in low-middle-income developing countries, that involves rising production and consumption of cement and energy. As such, a growing amount of carbon emissions is becoming a serious challenge for developing economies. This study has assessed the driving factors that influence the critical levels of carbon emissions by employing Kaya identity and logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition models in the growing cement manufacturing sector of a low-medium developing county, Pakistan, from 2005 to 2020. The results portrayed a typical trend of carbon emissions which are summarized as follows: (a) From 2006 to 2010, a slight increase is shown; (b) a slight decrease in the trend during 2011–2013; (c) from 2014 to 2018, there is a rapid rebound in the trend; and (d) a slight decline in 2019–2020. While the resultant mean values regarding the growth of the cement sector (6.34%), labor productivity (12.03%), energy structure (0.06%), energy intensity (− 0.63%), and carbon intensity (− 0.87%) have deliberated that these are the driving factors for carbon emissions by the cement industry in a developing economy. This study will provide an insight to the policymakers of developing nations so that they can efficiently monitor their carbon emissions and design and implement effective mitigation strategies. Ultimately, they would be able to shift to carbon–neutral technologies and renewable-alternative energy sources to achieve sustainable economic growth and a cleaner environment.Graphical abstract