Abstract
Wheat is an incredibly political crop because of its inelastic demand in Pakistan. Wheat accounts for almost 50 percent calorie intake in the country with a relatively greater share in total calorie intake in rural areas of the country. Despite the sensitivity of this crop, it is always challenged by various factors like climate change along with other economic and political influences make it difficult to meet the nutrient requirement of the rapidly growing population. For a better-informed policy framework, it is necessary to study the previous patterns of growth of the wheat crop and its contributing factors to formulate more vigorous growth targets of the wheat crop in the future. For this purpose, we decomposed wheat growth into the area, yield and their joint effect from 1947 to 2016 both overall and decade wise to study any structural breakdown overtime. The results of the decomposition analysis reveal that the area contribution of wheat remained 35 percent while yield contribution was 61 percent. The same is the case in decade wise analysis which reveals that in future yield can be increased by adopting favourable policies to harness the yield potential of wheat in the country.
Highlights
Pakistan is an agriculture-based economy with a larger share of the sector in all the growth indicators (Asif, 2013)
This study focused on growth rate analysis of wheat production and decomposition of growth factors contributing to wheat production from 1947 to 2016 in Pakistan
This study concluded growth rate analysis as an important tool for policymakers to comprehend the impact of applied policies because it provides a direction of change, either it is in the desired way or not
Summary
Pakistan is an agriculture-based economy with a larger share of the sector in all the growth indicators (Asif, 2013). The share of the agriculture sector in annual GDP remained 18.5 percent along with a 38.5 percent share in the labor force of the country (GOP, 2019). This makes its role very critical for the overall development of the country (Ahmad et al, 2002). The production of the crop increased by 0.5 percent as compares to the fiscal year 2018 while its contribution in value-added and GDP is 8.9 and 1.6 percent respectively (GOP, 2019) It provides almost 60 percent of daily diet to a common man with 125 kg per capita consumption, it helps government efforts in achieving food security in the country (PARC, 2016). Wheat accounts for almost 50 percent calorie intake in Pakistan
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