Decomposition Analysis of Factors that Drive the Changes of Major Air Pollutant Emissions in China at a Multi-Regional Level

Shuxiao Wang,Yunfan Li,Yiwen Li,Shichun Xu,Xiaoxue Ma,Yongmei Miao,Jun Yang

doi:10.3390/su11247113

Shuxiao Wang, Yunfan Li + Show 5 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su11247113

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Abstract

The regional emission reduction determines the national emission reduction for one country, and the differences in regional economic characteristics may result in regional differences in air pollutant emissions (APEs). In this regard, this study constructs a regional contribution index of different factors through an extended LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) method and investigates regional differences in factors driving the changes of China’s major APEs (SO2, NOx, and PM2.5). It reveals that the regional emission efficiency effect was a key inhibitory factor on APEs, which was more obvious in the eastern and northern regions. The regional energy intensity had greater inhibitory effects on SO2 and NOx than on PM2.5, and these inhibitory effects were more obvious in the eastern region. The regional population structure promoted APEs for northern, southern, northeastern, and eastern regions, and inhibited APEs for central, southwestern, and northwestern regions. The regional relative income had a slight effect, which curbed APEs for northern, eastern, southern, and northern regions. The national economic growth effect was the key factor in promoting APEs, which was obvious in eastern and northern regions, followed by southern, central, and southwestern regions. Policy implications are put forward based on empirical results.

Highlights

China’s economic development has led to huge energy consumption and great pressures on the environment
The current studies have concentrated on factors affecting air pollutant emissions (APEs) in view of a nation or single region, but few articles have touched on this issue in view of multi regions to reveal the regional differences in effects on multiple major APEs, such as SO2, NOx, and PM2.5. In this case, considering that the regional emission reduction determines the national emission reduction for one country, and the Sustainability 2019, 11, 7113 differences in regional economic characteristics may result in regional differences in APEs, this study extends the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method from the multi-regional perspective to examine the regional differences in influencing factors on SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 in China during 2005–2015
This work came to these conclusions based on the empirical analysis: (1) the regional emission efficiency effect was the most significant curbing factor for APEs; the curbing effect of regional emission efficiency was great for eastern and northern regions, followed by southern and central regions, whereas it was small for southwest, northwestern, and northeastern regions

Summary

Introduction

China’s economic development has led to huge energy consumption and great pressures on the environment. The severe haze in January 2013 caused economic losses of about 2.538 million US dollars in Beijing, accounting for 0.08% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in the same year [3]; increases in PM2.5 concentration by 5 micrograms per cubic meter may result in decreases in GDP per capita by about 2500 Renminbi (RMB) [4]; China’s economic losses caused by PM2.5 in 2016 amounted to 101 billion US dollars, accounting for 0.91% of its GDP in the same year [5]. China issued the pollution reduction target for the 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2016–2020) that by 2020 the energy consumption per 10,000 RMB GDP would be cut by 15% in comparison to 2015, and SO2 and NOx would be within 15.8 and 15.74 million tons, respectively, which are both 15% lower than the level of 2015. There are regional differences in APEs for China because of its serious imbalances in economic development. It is urgent and important to study the regional differences in factors that affect APEs in China, which is conductive to offer references for designing policies according to regional differences and effectively reduce air pollutant emissions (APEs)

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