Decomposing the influencing factors of energy consumption in Tunisian transportation sector using the LMDI method

Abstract

Due to rapid economic development and accelerated urbanization, Tunisia's transport sector has experienced a dramatic growth that leads to excessive demand for fossil fuel energy. This study identifies the driving factors and measures their corresponding contributions in transportation energy consumption for the case of Tunisia by using the logarithmic-mean Divisia index method (LMDI) over the period 1985–2014. The transport related energy consumption is decomposed into energy intensity, transportation structure effect, transportation intensity effect, economic output, and population scale effects according to the driving mechanism. Results indicate that the overall effect of economic output, transportation intensity, population scale, and transportation structure on energy consumption is positive, whereas the overall effect of energy intensity is negative. It was shown that energy intensity played the dominant role in decreasing energy consumption during the study period. Improving the transport intensity exerts significant effect on saving energy. Our empirical findings provide scientific supports for the policy measures based on low greenhouse gas emissions integrated transport.