Abstract
While space cooling currently represents less than 1% of final energy use in the residential sector of the European Union (EU-28), it was the fastest growing end-use during the 2000-15 period with a mean annual growth rate of 6% per year. Currently, little is known about factors which have driven regional air-conditioning (AC) energy consumption over time, since the literature is limited to cross-sectional studies that lack differentiation between climatic and non-climatic influences. Future projections for the EU's electricity sector may therefore neglect the potential implications of rapidly growing AC demand. We develop a novel decomposition framework, which breaks down residential space cooling energy consumption in EU-28 countries into the effect of different components from 2000 to 2015. Decomposition is extended to panel data models identifying specific drivers of space cooling's climate-sensitive components. Finally, we explore scenarios of residential AC energy consumption up to 2050 and evaluate their impact on summer time peak loads. AC diffusion was found to be the key driver of space cooling energy consumption, but this effect was partly counterbalanced by efficiency gains. While weather influences AC equipment ownership rate in EU-28 households, personal income has a larger marginal effect. In baseline scenarios, AC diffusion saturates by 2050, while modestly increasing sectoral final energy use. Still, our range of scenario values for space cooling energy consumption in 2050 exceed the majority of those originating from recently published projections. In a future renewables-driven electricity system, energy security risks may emerge from a scenario of fast AC up-take in new and renovated buildings, especially for colder European countries where modelled peak cooling electricity demand is shown to outgrow the projected expansion of solar capacity. These findings have important implications for the EU's strategy to decarbonise energy supply.
Highlights
Global energy consumption for space cooling has increased threefold between 1990 and 2016 and has been accompanied by a tremendous growth in air-conditioning (AC) sales [1,2]
What are the impacts of future AC diffusion trajectories on electricity-based final energy use for space cooling in the EU-28 residential sectors and potential peak cooling electricity demand, as projected up to 2050? This paper develops baseline AC diffusion scenarios incorporating projections of socio-economic and climatic data, while alternative policy cases consider unit efficiency targets and AC installation rates in new and renovated buildings
This paper has developed and applied new approaches to deciphering drivers of past and future trends of electricity-based final energy use for air-conditioning in EU’s residential sector; an end-use characterised by tremendous growth potential
Summary
Global energy consumption for space cooling has increased threefold between 1990 and 2016 and has been accompanied by a tremendous growth in air-conditioning (AC) sales [1,2]. Since space cooling in EU-28 households is usually supplied through electric room air-conditioners (RACs) [6], the expected growth of residential AC markets across Europe [7] will intensify pressure on national electricity sectors. This translates into a need for additional generating capacity and more effective management of summer time peak loads; issues which are already evident in Mediterranean EU-28 countries [8]
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