Decomposing East-Asian winter temperature and monsoonal circulation changes using timeslice experiments

Abstract

Based on a set of pilot atmosphere-only experiments from the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CFMIP-3), in this study, the winter surface air temperature (SAT) and monsoonal circulation changes in East Asia as a response to the 4 × CO2 forcing in coupled model are decomposed into the four parts in terms of the responses to the uniform SST warming, 4 × CO2 radiative effect, SST pattern changes, and plant physiological effect. The uniform SST warming presents the most significant influence on the increase of SAT change, which strengthens the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) circulation. The CO2 radiative effect can also induce the SAT increase over East Asia but with a magnitude smaller compared to the uniform SST warming, in which more warming is in land than ocean and the EAWM circulation could be weakened consequently due to the decreased land–sea thermal contrast in response to the CO2 radiative effect. The SAT changes in response to the SST pattern change show inconsistencies over the eastern and southern parts of East Asia between the two models, associated with the large difference for EAWM circulation changes, indicating that the SST pattern change could be the primary source of inter-model uncertainties in the East-Asian SAT change. As for the influence of plant physiological effect, it could generate a SAT rise in many highly vegetated regions. Further analyses for different areas show that both the uniform SST warming and CO2 radiative effects could induce more intense SAT increase in northern East Asia, while the plant physiological effect has a more significant influence on that in southern/eastern part of East Asia.