Decomposing Driving Forces of Carbon Emission Variation—A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Japan

Abstract

AbstractAlthough it has been emphasized for years, there remains insufficient knowledge on how to decompose the driving forces of carbon emissions that fluctuate with time, especially when considering the major natural or socio‐economic events. To bridge the knowledge gap, we use the structural decomposition analysis method and select Japan for a case study. The results show that such events were followed by temporary emission increases due to economic recovery, but the general decreasing trend of carbon emissions has been unchanged in a long run. In the case of Japan, during the financial crisis period (2005–2011), emissions increased due to production structure (136.2 Mt‐CO2) and consumption structure (61.8 Mt‐CO2). However, the intensity change and per capita consumption effect were the main driving forces that offset this increasing trend, which reduced by 209.7 Mt‐CO2 in total. After the 2011 earthquake, a significant gain in upgraded production structure led to a 78.2 Mt‐CO2 reduction until 2015, partially offset the 126.4 Mt‐CO2 increase caused by per capita consumption and export volume. In conclusion, although post‐event economic recovery has led to an increasing trend of carbon emissions, continuously optimized emission intensity and production structure are the major driving forces for repressing carbon emission rebound brought by unexpected events.