Decomposing and Decoupling the Energy-Related Carbon Emissions in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Using the Extended LMDI and Tapio Index Model

Abstract

To deal with global warming and fulfil China’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060, reducing carbon emissions has become a necessary requirement. As one of China’s three major economic circles, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (B–T–H) has a great responsibility. This paper measures energy-related carbon emissions of B–T–H from 2005 to 2019 and uses the extended Logarithmic Mean Division Index (LMDI) to decompose the carbon emission effect factors. Then, a Tapio index model was constructed to analyse the contribution of each effect factor. The results showed that: (1) the total carbon emissions of B–T–H increased by 1.5 times, with Hebei having the highest proportion, followed by Tianjin and Beijing. Coal was the biggest emitter in all three regions. Natural gas emissions in Tianjin and Beijing were growing rapidly. (2) Consistent with most studies, economic development promoted carbon emissions, while energy intensity and energy structure inhibited them. It was found that innovative factors also have significant impacts: research and development efficiency was the primary emission inhibition factor in Hebei and the secondary inhibition factor in Tianjin and Beijing. The effects of investment intensity and research and development intensity differed between regions. (3) Beijing took the lead in achieving strong decoupling, followed by Tianjin. Hebei maintained weak decoupling. Innovative factors also played an important role in decoupling, which cannot be ignored in achieving emission reduction targets.