Abstract
Climate change has gained widespread attention, and the rapid growth of the economy in China has generated a considerable amount of carbon emissions. Zhejiang Province was selected as a study area. First, the energy-related carbon emissions from 2000 to 2014 were accounted for, and then the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition model was applied to analyse the driving factors underlying the carbon emissions. Finally, three scenarios (inertia, comparative decoupling and absolute decoupling) for 2020 and 2030 were simulated based on the low-carbon city and Human Impact Population Affluence Technology (IPAT) models. The results showed (1) carbon emissions increased by 1.66 times from 2000 to 2014, and trends of carbon emissions were used to divide the study period into three phases (rapid, medium growth and slow decrease phases, with annual growth rates of 12.60%, 4.77% and −1.24%, respectively); (2) the energy intensity effect from 2000–2011 inhibited carbon emissions but was exceeded by the economic output effect, which increased emissions, whereas the energy intensity effect from 2011–2014 outweighed the economic output effect; (3) the scenario analyses revealed that both the comparative and absolute decoupling scenarios would remain consistent with the carbon emissions boundaries in 2020 and 2030, but the comparative decoupling scenario was more reasonable for sustainable development. In addition, appropriate design of emission trading scheme could help to achieve the comparative decoupling by financial incentives.
Highlights
Climate change has received widespread attention because it threatens human survival.Approximately 63% of the gaseous radiative force that contributes to climate change is carbon [1]; most of the international community has prioritized reducing carbon emissions and promoting low-carbon economic transitions
In the study period from 2000 to 2014, the total carbon emissions increased by 1.66 times, and the span can be divided into three phases (2000–2007, 2007–2011 and 2011–2014) according to the trends
In the first two periods, the carbon emissions tended to increase, the annual growth rate varied between them, with carbon emissions presenting rapid growth in the first period at an annual growth rate of 12.60%, while the annual growth rate decreased in the second period to 4.77%
Summary
63% of the gaseous radiative force that contributes to climate change is carbon [1]; most of the international community has prioritized reducing carbon emissions and promoting low-carbon economic transitions. The rapid growth of the population and economy in China has been closely associated with the excessive consumption of fossil fuels and generated large amounts of carbon emissions that accounted for 23% of the global energy consumption and 23.4% of the global carbon emissions in 2014 [2]. Increasing attention and pressure has been drawn to the Chinese government regarding these large amounts of carbon emissions. At the United Nations Climate Change conference held in Copenhagen in 2009, China promised that by 2020, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) would decrease by 40–45% compared with those in 2005
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