Decline, radicalization and the attack on the US Capitol

Abstract

The attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 was the result of a perception of relative decline on the part of American conservatives and their simultaneous radicalization. Relative decline and radicalization are both potent causes of violence. When a formerly dominant group is in decline, it may fear that in the future it will lack the bargaining power to maintain the status quo, and so resort to violence to prevent decline, or lock in present advantages. Radicalization increases the perceived stakes of power transitions; if the opponent is dangerous, all means are justified in preventing their accession to power. Conservative radicalization was driven by partisan polarization, media polarization, the emergence of social media and associated conspiracy theories, and the formation of armed right-wing groups. The structural conditions generating the attack are unlikely to ameliorate, so the potential for political violence will remain.