Abstract
Understanding and identifying drivers of local population declines are important in mitigating future risks and optimising conservation efforts. The Knysna elephants have, after being afforded protection since the early 1900s, declined to near extinction today. We propose three hypotheses as to why the Knysna elephant population declined. The refugee hypothesis suggests that anthropogenic activities forced the elephants to take refuge in the forest and that the low-quality food acted as the primary driver of decline. The illegal killing hypothesis suggests that the elephants adapted to the forest and its immediate fynbos habitat, with the decline being a consequence of illegal kills. The stochastic founder population hypothesis postulates that the population size and structure left it vulnerable to demographic stochasticity. We critically reviewed available evidence for these hypotheses and found that, although the historical elephant range decline most likely resulted through the refugee hypothesis, the weak demographic and life-history information limits elimination of either of the other hypotheses. We touch on the implications for decision-makers and draw attention to information requirements.
 Significance:
 
 We highlight the knowledge and management challenges which exist for small, threatened populations of which long-term demographic data are sparse.
 We provide the first unbiased evaluation of multiple drivers that may have caused the decline of the Knysna elephants.
Highlights
African elephants, Loxodonta africana, are declining across the continent, largely because they are poached for their ivory.[1]
We provide the first unbiased evaluation of multiple drivers that may have caused the decline of the Knysna elephants
The refugee concept suggests that the range of the Knysna elephant population declined from them living in historically open areas to being confined to the forest and its immediate surrounding fynbos habitat
Summary
Loxodonta africana, are declining across the continent, largely because they are poached for their ivory.[1] In contrast to continental trends, elephant populations in South Africa have increased in recent years.[2] The Knysna elephants, are an anomaly They are the most southern group of elephants in Africa, the only remaining free-ranging elephants in South Africa and represent one of four relict populations in the country.[3] This small population failed to flourish after official protection was afforded in 1908, and its chances for persistence are of concern. We discuss information gaps and the management implications of our findings for decision-making on the future of the Knysna elephants
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