Decline in China's coal consumption: An evidence of peak coal or a temporary blip?

Abstract

Chinese coal consumption declined 3.7% year on year in 2015. Is this evidence of China's “coal peak” or a temporary blip? In this paper, we use a time series model to explore if further China's coal consumption will be higher or lower than the level of 2014. Before the modeling, we undertake a comprehensive analysis of data reliability, because problems with the accuracy of Chinese data have posed the main challenge to calculating its energy use. Our results show that annual Chinese coal consumption during 2016–2020 will be lower than the level of 2014 if the annual average GDP growth rate is less than 8.2%/year. Given that Chinese economy has been adapting to a “new normal” (slower but higher-quality economic growth) since 2014, and GDP growth target of at least 6.5% during 2016–2020 set by 13th Five Year Plan, we conclude that Chinese coal consumption peaked in 2014, which could translate into a big change in the global coal consumption and carbon emission.