Decline Curve Analysis for Production Forecast and Optimization of Liquid-Dominated Geothermal Reservoir

Abstract

Power projects in the geothermal field has a long span of about 30 years. The power supply should be maintained at a certain value across a range of time. A geothermal field, however, has the characteristics of natural production decline with time. In a geothermal field, development of decline curve model of steam production is important for forecasting production decline in the future. This study was developed using decline curve by production data along 3 years liquid-dominated geothermal reservoir in Ulubelu field. Decline curve in geothermal field based on decline curve in petroleum industry. The decline curve was correlated by reservoir management in geothermal. The purposes of this study to get best match model decline curve and forecasting production in the future. Based on decline curve analysis by production data in Ulubelu field, the result model decline curve is exponential model. From the model, we can get the value of decline rate in the field is 9.4 %/year. Then, the formula of forecasting steam flow used exponent decline to forecast in the future. By using separated system cycle in Ulubelu field, the minimal steam flowrate towards turbine was 502018.4 ton/month. Based on formula of forecasting production and minimal steam flowrate, we can get the time make up wells to maintain steam supply for stability in generator power capacity.